Exit volume decline continues

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Third quarter exit volume hit its lowest point since Q2 2020, according to the Q3 US PE Breakdown. So did exit value, for that matter. All told, an estimated $293 billion has been sold off this year, which actually stacks up well against prior years. 2019, a healthy year by exit measures, recorded $384 billion worth of sales. With a decent fourth quarter, 2022 could approach those numbers.

But considering the past three quarters have all been on the decline, that’s a big if. When an athlete is in a slump, its tempting to say he’s “due” for a correction. But usually those slumps are reflective of something bigger, and they require some kind of catalyst to turn around. 2022 exit numbers may end up comparing well to prior years, thanks to 2021 spillover at the beginning of the year. But the final numbers would cut against the grain of current sentiment, which is downbeat, and there doesn’t appear to be any big catalysts on the horizon.

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)