High Five – 2025 Outlook (Third of a Series)
The hope is for enough positive GDP momentum to keep adding new jobs and improving productivity. December’s labor report showed 256,000 job adds, and core CPI decelerating modestly to 3.2%. And while other inflation data remained stubbornly above the Fed’s target, investors should draw confidence from a resilient backdrop. At a portfolio level, we have also seen companies adapt to higher-for-longer, keep cash levels robust.
Rate stability creates more certainty around valuations, which we expect to lead to meaningful pick-up in M&A activity. This builds on the trend we saw in 2024, when North American M&A reached over $1.5 trillion by the end of Q3, not far off the 2023 full-year $1.7 trillion total.
▶︎ Read Jan 20th, 2025 Newsletter: here
Latest news
US leveraged loans returns turn negative in October
The Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN) has returned -0.26% this month through October 21, reducing its year-to-date return…
M&A activity begins to tick upward
In the third quarter of 2026, acquisition-linked loan volume across North America and Europe reached about $47 billion, up from $30.6 billion in Q2 and $29.5 billion a year ago.
