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Private Credit Defaults 101: Beyond the Noise
Like any good school year, this series went by fast. But as class comes to an end, there’s one theme that’s been top of mind here at The Lead: “noise.”
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October 6, 2026 
Share of US private debt capital raised by strategy
At 43.6% of all capital raised in the US through the first half of 2026, direct lending remains the largest category of the asset class…
US private debt AUM ($B) by channel
In 2025 and the early part of 2026, the retail channel added AUM to the asset class at a much faster rate than institutional investors in both regions, with growth rates of 43.7% globally, 41.4% in the US, and 73. 1% in Europe through the beginning of 2026 compared with year-end 2024 figures.
Density of TVPI at 10 years after inception by fund size
Marquee managers seem to be victims of their own success. Strong performance brings in more capital, and the desire to grow AUM and please public shareholders inevitably leads to returns clustered around the market average.
PE dry powder
The capital that is being raised is flowing overwhelmingly to the largest, most established managers.
PE fund distribution rates
Following 2021, buyout distribution rates have fallen to roughly 10% to 15% below the 25-year average.
PE exit activity
Exit value fell to $102.6 billion in the second quarter—down 46.3% from the prior quarter and 7.4% YoY—while exit count dropped to 353, a 14.1% quarterly decline and a 5.4% rise against Q2 2025.
Multiples on PE buyouts
Median net debt/EBITDA across the market stood at 4.7x in 2025, and although it bottomed near 4x in 2023 before recovering, it remains below the 5.2x reached in 2021…
Multiples on PE buyouts
This quarter marks our integration of SPI by StepStone as the primary source for US buyout valuation metrics for the PE Breakdown.
PE middle-market pooled IRR and TVPI by TEV size bucket
The lower end of the middle market has generated better returns on average and does not come with significantly more left-tail risk
PE middle-market TVPI and DPI by fund vintage
Going forward, we expect that returns will be driven by disciplined buying and operational value creation, rather than…
Share of PE middle-market fund count by size bucket
LPs facing constrained distributions are concentrating commitments with a shorter list of established, brand-name managers…
Share of PE middle-market exit value by sector
Sector composition tilted hard toward B2B in Q1. B2B accounted for 52.9% of middle-market exit value, up from 38.2% in full-year 2025…
PE IRR Distribution by TEV Size Bucket
Pooled IRRs for recent middle-market vintages have compressed alongside the broader cycle.
Share of PE middle-market exit value by type
Middle-market exit activity carried through into 2026, with a Q1 total exit value of $32 billion across 218 transactions, up 14% and 1.5% YoY, respectively.
US PE middle-market deal activity by quarter
The middle market got off to its strongest start since 2021, even as its share of PE deal value dropped to the lowest level on record.
Middle market vs. megafund PE IRR dispersion (2018–2021 vintages)
For much of the past two decades, PE delivered a consistent premium over public markets that justified its illiquidity and fee load—a proposition that is now under pressure.