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Private Credit Defaults 101: Beyond the Noise
Like any good school year, this series went by fast. But as class comes to an end, there’s one theme that’s been top of mind here at The Lead: “noise.”
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October 6, 2026 
Slowing the Slowdown
Notwithstanding tariffs, economists now view the chances of a recession fading. Source: WSJ Surveys of Economists
US Leveraged Loan Issuance Tops $65bn in June
June’s 75 deals for $66b was up $34.4b, or 109%, from the previous month’s $31.6b, but was down $83.6b or…
Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (Second of a Series)
Those who talk about risks in private credit should also keep in mind that investors always look at relative risk.…
Share of New-Issue First-Lien Loans with Key Covenant Terms
(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
PE capital raised ($B) by age bucket (2010-2025)
Download PitchBook’s Report here. Looking at the funds that face the most imminent fund terms, 11.8% of active funds are 10…
As overall issuance slips in 2Q25, strategic M&A remains a bright spot for LevFin market
Leveraged finance issuance topped US$343bn in 2Q25, down approximately 30% from 1Q25 and off nearly 40% versus 2Q24.
Wealth Effects
The share of wealth assets dedicated to private credit is on the rise. Source: FT, Oliver Wyman
Reflections on Wimbledon
As a long-time observer and amateur practitioner of the game, we enjoy the season when tennis arrives at the hallowed…
2025 sees fundraising extremes
Our data shows the brakes have been slammed by investors after a fast start to the year for those raising…
Smaller US Banks Most Exposed to Nonbank Lending
Smaller, Non-Systemic U.S. Banks Most Concentrated to Non-Bank Lending Click here to download report. Evolving regulation has shone the spotlight…
Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (First of a Series)
Moviegoers know that Tom Cruise “does his own stunts.” We always assumed this mostly meant riding motorcycles fast. And even…
US Leveraged Loans Return 0.76% in June
The Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN) advanced 0.76% in June after a 1.53% gain in May, bringing its…
Share of IPO capital raised by backing type
Download PitchBook’s Report here. With the S&P 500 index climbing back near its historical peak and surpassing the psychological threshold of 6,000,…
Share of Loans with Uncapped EBITDA Add-Backs
(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)
Smaller US Banks Most Exposed to Nonbank Lending
Smaller, Non-Systemic U.S. Banks Most Concentrated to Non-Bank Lending Click here to learn more. A relatively small percentage of U.S.…
The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Part One)
Life happens at inflection points. This goes for capital markets as well. Whether changes in interest rates (high to low),…