Where We Are (Second of a Series)

How challenging has it been to predict the next recession? An inverted Treasury yield curve, a reliable forecaster of the past eight consecutive downturns, has been signaling recession for almost two years. So far, the economy has failed to cooperate. While growth is slowing, and inflation along with it, expectations are broad of a solid GDP number around 2.4% for 2024.How challenging has it been to predict the next recession? An inverted Treasury yield curve, a reliable forecaster of the past eight consecutive downturns, has been signaling recession for almost two years. So far, the economy has failed to cooperate. While growth is slowing, and inflation along with it, expectations are broad of a solid GDP number around 2.4% for 2024…

▶︎ Read May 27th 2024 Newsletter: here