Where We Are (Second of a Series)
How challenging has it been to predict the next recession? An inverted Treasury yield curve, a reliable forecaster of the past eight consecutive downturns, has been signaling recession for almost two years. So far, the economy has failed to cooperate. While growth is slowing, and inflation along with it, expectations are broad of a solid GDP number around 2.4% for 2024.How challenging has it been to predict the next recession? An inverted Treasury yield curve, a reliable forecaster of the past eight consecutive downturns, has been signaling recession for almost two years. So far, the economy has failed to cooperate. While growth is slowing, and inflation along with it, expectations are broad of a solid GDP number around 2.4% for 2024…
▶︎ Read May 27th 2024 Newsletter: here
Latest news
Spread per turn of leverage tightened 5% for lower middle market
Lenders benefited from better risk-adjusted pricing for larger middle-market and large-cap deals in the third quarter.
Middle market debt held by BDCs vs High yield vs Treasury yields
The blue line shows BIZD’s dividend yield rising 130bps in a month to 12.9% as of 22 October, although most…
Single-B loan pricing faces renewed pressure in October; 150 bps gap to double-Bs
We noted in our monthly leveraged loan coverage how average new-issue institutional loan yields moved somewhat counterintuitively: single-Bs tightened 14bp…