US private debt rolling one-year horizon IRR by type

Overall, private debt returns for most asset classes in 2025 are showing a decline compared with 2024 levels. Interest rate cuts are part of this story, but the drivers vary by asset class, with the most common explanation being spread compression due to crowded debt strategies, such as direct lending.

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US private debt AUM ($B) by channel

In 2025 and the early part of 2026, the retail channel added AUM to the asset class at a much faster rate than institutional investors in both regions, with growth rates of 43.7% globally, 41.4% in the US, and 73. 1% in Europe through the beginning of 2026 compared with year-end 2024 figures.

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PE dry powder

The capital that is being raised is flowing overwhelmingly to the largest, most established managers.

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PE exit activity

Exit value fell to $102.6 billion in the second quarter—down 46.3% from the prior quarter and 7.4% YoY—while exit count dropped to 353, a 14.1% quarterly decline and a 5.4% rise against Q2 2025.

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Multiples on PE buyouts

Median net debt/EBITDA across the market stood at 4.7x in 2025, and although it bottomed near 4x in 2023 before recovering, it remains below the 5.2x reached in 2021…

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