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Private Credit Defaults 101: Beyond the Noise
Like any good school year, this series went by fast. But as class comes to an end, there’s one theme that’s been top of mind here at The Lead: “noise.”
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October 6, 2026 
Density of TVPI at 10 years after inception by fund size
Marquee managers seem to be victims of their own success. Strong performance brings in more capital, and the desire to grow AUM and please public shareholders inevitably leads to returns clustered around the market average.
PE dry powder
The capital that is being raised is flowing overwhelmingly to the largest, most established managers.
PE fund distribution rates
Following 2021, buyout distribution rates have fallen to roughly 10% to 15% below the 25-year average.
Sub line pricing flattens
A report on the topic also finds that investors are less concerned by leverage in NAV loans.Pricing for subscription lines…
PE exit activity
Exit value fell to $102.6 billion in the second quarter—down 46.3% from the prior quarter and 7.4% YoY—while exit count dropped to 353, a 14.1% quarterly decline and a 5.4% rise against Q2 2025.
Unconquered Territory
With most of the map still unexplored, there’s room for a sequel.
Multiples on PE buyouts
Median net debt/EBITDA across the market stood at 4.7x in 2025, and although it bottomed near 4x in 2023 before recovering, it remains below the 5.2x reached in 2021…
Multiples on PE buyouts
This quarter marks our integration of SPI by StepStone as the primary source for US buyout valuation metrics for the PE Breakdown.
PE middle-market pooled IRR and TVPI by TEV size bucket
The lower end of the middle market has generated better returns on average and does not come with significantly more left-tail risk
Riding the Wave
Momentum, more often than conviction, drives the biggest deals.
PE middle-market TVPI and DPI by fund vintage
Going forward, we expect that returns will be driven by disciplined buying and operational value creation, rather than…
Q2 European direct lending activity up 9%
Despite the geopolitical and macroeconomic events of the first half of the year creating a volatile environment, the European private credit market continues to demonstrate robust resilience.
Share of PE middle-market fund count by size bucket
LPs facing constrained distributions are concentrating commitments with a shorter list of established, brand-name managers…
Middle market vs. megafund PE IRR dispersion (2018–2021 vintages)
For much of the past two decades, PE delivered a consistent premium over public markets that justified its illiquidity and fee load—a proposition that is now under pressure.
PE AUM forecast ($T)
By the end of 2030, we forecast global PE AUM to reach $8.8 trillion in our base case, with a plausible range of $7.6 trillion in our downside case to $10.2 trillion in our upside case.
Business of Private Credit: Playing to Your Strengths
“Show me a great credit, and I’ll show you a great sponsor behind it.”
For this series, we’ve focused on how core middle market lenders underwrite a borrower.