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Private Credit Defaults 101: Beyond the Noise
Like any good school year, this series went by fast. But as class comes to an end, there’s one theme that’s been top of mind here at The Lead: “noise.”
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October 6, 2026 
US Leveraged Loans Return 3.36% to Investors YTD
The Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN) returned 0.96% in August and has gained an additional 0.28% through September…
PE dry powder
The capital that is being raised is flowing overwhelmingly to the largest, most established managers.
LevFin Issuance Slows Across Products in August; DCM Remains a Bright Spot
The leveraged capital markets business continued to decelerate from just about every aspect, even for August standards. Overall issuance (including…
Fitch Ratings’ U.S. Private Credit Default Rate Rose to 6.3% in August 2026
Fitch Ratings recorded a U.S. Private Credit Default Rate (PCDR) of 6.3% for the trailing 12 months (TTM) ended August 2026, up from 6.1% in July 2026 and a record high.
The Recovery Shot
Trouble off the tee doesn’t always translate to trouble on the scorecard.
Q2'26 BDC analysis shows additional 184 bps of nonaccruals at cost
In a universe of 173 business development companies, or BDCs, Octus identified a total of $9.5 billion of debt (at cost) in nonaccrual status reported in the second quarter of 2026, a slight decline of 5% from $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Reading the Board
The story changes depending on which numbers you’re counting.
Private Credit Defaults 101: Different Numbers, Different Stories
In Season 2 of Billions, Bobby Axelrod takes his lawyer Orrin Bach to an empty Yonkers racetrack in the dead of night.
US Leveraged Loan Launches Exceed $30b in post-Labor Day Rush
The US leveraged loan market recorded $24.6b of new launches on Tuesday, September 8, marking the busiest post-Labor Day surge…
PE fund distribution rates
Following 2021, buyout distribution rates have fallen to roughly 10% to 15% below the 25-year average.
Sub line pricing flattens
A report on the topic also finds that investors are less concerned by leverage in NAV loans. Pricing for subscription…
BDC AUM Hits Record US$577.8B in 2Q26
Despite growth slowing this year, BDC assets under management (AUM) rose by US$3.4bn in 2Q26 to a record US$577.8bn. By…
Barbelled Recovery Trend Persists in Fitch’s Private Ratings Portfolio
The trend of barbelled recovery outcomes, either very high or very low recoveries, persisted in Fitch Ratings’ private ratings portfolio in 1H26.
Private Credit Defaults 101: Scrambling for Par
Seve Ballesteros won four majors in the 1980s despite being, by his own admission, one of the wildest drivers of the golf ball on tour.